[PHNUTR-L] Average American Has "Substantial" Lifetime Risk of Developing Diabetes

[Kathrynne Holden, MS, RD]

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Average American Has "Substantial" Lifetime Risk of Developing Diabetes

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/536463?src=mp

By Martha Kerr

WASHINGTON, DC (Reuters Health) Jun 15 - Body mass index (BMI) is 
tightly linked to lifetime risk of diabetes mellitus, researchers 
reported at the Scientific Sessions of the American Diabetes 
Association. "On average, every American has a very high risk of 
diabetes," CDC investigators announced.

Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 
data, Dr. K. M. Venkat Narayan and associates at the Centers for Disease 
Control and Prevention in Atlanta, GA, calculated lifetime risk of 
diabetes according to BMI for subjects aged 18 to 84.

For a normal-weight 18-year-old man, the average lifetime risk of 
diabetes is 19.8%. Risk increases to 29.7% for overweight men, 57.0% for 
obese men and 70.3% for very obese men.

For normal-weight women at 18 years of age, lifetime risk is 17.1%; for 
overweight women it is 35.4%, for obese women it is 54.6% and for very 
obese women it is 74.4%.

Those figures mean that, compared with normal weight men at age 18, the 
increased lifetime risk of diabetes for overweight men is 9.9%, for 
obese men, 37.2%, and for very obese men, 57.3%. Corresponding figures 
for women are 18.3%, 37.5%, and 57.3%.

Men 65 years and older have a much lower lifetime risk of diabetes with 
increasing BMI. Compared with normal-weight men at this age, overweight 
men have a 3.7% higher risk, for obese men risk is 18.8% higher, and for 
the very obese it is increased 23.9%. For older women the increased risk 
is slightly higher than for older men in each weight category, but still 
much lower than for younger women.

"Clearly, intervening to reduce obesity as early in life as possible is 
our best tool to reduce the risk of diabetes," Dr. Narayan told meeting 
attendees.

CDC co-investigator Dr. Desmond E. Williams presented NHANES data from 
1999-2002 on 3,030 individuals without diabetes at baseline. The purpose 
of the study was to investigate an association between pre-diabetes, 
defined as an impaired fasting blood glucose (IFG) of 100-125 mg/dL, and 
cardiovascular risk.

Patients with IFG comprised 27.9% of a subset of 954 subject. They were 
older, with a mean age of 49.1 compared with 40.9 years for those with 
normal glucose levels, and were less likely to be women (38% vs 56%).

Of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, the prevalence of high blood 
pressure was 48.3% in those with IFG compared with 31% of those with 
normal levels, enlarged waist circumference was present in 56% with IFG 
compared with 37.3% in normoglycemics, obesity prevalence was 38% 
compared with 23.4%, and dyslipidemia 57.2% versus 44.8%.

"The metabolic state of pre-diabetes has a very significant burden of 
cardiovascular risk," Dr. Williams told meeting attendees.

"If we could treat metabolic syndrome," a constellation of symptoms 
including obesity, high waist-to-hip ratio, dyslipidemia, high blood 
pressure and IFG, co-presenter Dr. David Eddy of Archimedes, Inc., said, 
"we could reduce risk of cardiovascular disease by 63%."

Dr. Eddy, of Aspen, Colorado, is developing a mathematical model to 
calculate the impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, which 
has been adopted by the ADA.
-- 
Kathrynne Holden, MS, RD < fivestar at nutritionucanlivewith.com >
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